Y4 7944 · MLM → SMF

departs 7:42 PM CST · arrives 11:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM

Weather at each end

MLM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7944 · MLM → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?