Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR PREMIA · FLIGHT YP 152 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

YP 152 · HNL → ICN

departs 2:35 PM HT · arrives 8:08 PM KST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.40 in

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YP 152 · HNL → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?