YV 4009 · IAH → ELP

departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:24 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4009 · IAH → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?