YV 6118 · IAH → MAF

departs 7:49 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ MAF is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MAF that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6118 · IAH → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?