Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6297 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

YV 6297 · OKC → IAH

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ 3pm departures from OKC are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6297 · OKC → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?