Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 3438 · DLH → ORD
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 0 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DLH that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
DLH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DLH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.37 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.