YX 3458 · CMH → EWR

departs 5:59 AM ET · arrives 7:49 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3458 · CMH → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?