Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 3611 · XNA → EWR
departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 55%
Sat 10/31 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.