YX 3622 · EWR → YYZ

took off 4:14 PM ET · expected to land 5:16 PM EDT (scheduled 3:55 PM ET → 5:40 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to YYZ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3622 · EWR → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?