YX 3639 · IAD → CVG

departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3639 · IAD → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?