Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 3646 · IAD → CMH
departs 10:34 PM ET · arrives 12:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.