YX 3648 · IAD → PIT

departs 5:21 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3648 · IAD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?