YX 3688 · LGA → IAD

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3688 · LGA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?