Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
YX 3691 · YOW → EWR
departs 6:03 PM EDT · arrives 7:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave YOW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YOW (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.