YX 3698 · IAD → LGA

departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3698 · IAD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?