Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4338
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4338 · LGA → MSN
departs 6:24 PM ET · arrives 7:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 54%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.