Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4401 · ILM → LGA
departs 11:32 AM ET · arrives 1:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 43%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.