YX 4415 · RDU → ORD

departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM CT

Your aircraft is N106HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4354 from ORD: landed 12:44 PM ET.

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4415 · RDU → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?