Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4451 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

YX 4451 · LGA → ILM

departs 8:49 AM ET · arrives 10:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4451 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?