Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

YX 4471 · LGA → ORF

departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4471 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?