YX 4496 · BUF → LGA

departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET

Your aircraft is N404YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4496 from LGA: in the air, landing about 4:57 PM ET, 35 min before departure.

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4496 · BUF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?