YX 4507 · CVG → ORD

departs 2:33 PM ET · arrives 3:08 PM CT

Your aircraft is N409YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4522 from JFK: landed 1:02 PM ET.

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4507 · CVG → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?