Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4704 · AVL → LGA
departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 56%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.