Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
YX 4780 · BUF → ORD
departs 11:23 AM ET · arrives 12:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.