YX 4804 · JFK → RDU

departs 5:34 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Your aircraft is N432YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4399 from CMH: landed 4:18 PM ET.

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4804 · JFK → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?