Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 5730 · BOS → LGA
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 46%
Fri 10/30 55%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.