Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 5833 · LEX → LGA
departs 3:54 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 45%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LEX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.