Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 5860 · IAD → JFK
departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 60%
Sat 10/31 48%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.