Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4659 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 4659 · JFK → RIC

departs 9:33 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4659 · JFK → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?