Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4894 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 4894 · DTW → CHA

departs 8:34 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into CHA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

CHA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4894 · DTW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?