Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4917 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 4917 · ORD → JFK

departs 5:59 PM CT · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4917 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?