Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4986 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 4986 · JFK → MKE

departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4986 · JFK → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?