Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4990 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 4990 · BHM → DTW

departs 5:22 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from BHM are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4990 · BHM → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?