Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5145 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 5145 · DTW → MSN

departs 8:57 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

MSN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5145 · DTW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?