Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5154 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 5154 · YYZ → LGA

departs 6:59 PM EDT · arrives 8:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5154 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?