Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

9E 5186 · ILM → LGA

departs 11:21 AM ET · arrives 1:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5186 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?