Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5212 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 5212 · ILM → LGA

departs 5:12 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5212 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?