Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5219 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9E 5219 · RDU → JFK

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5219 · RDU → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?