Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 14 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

9K 14 · LEB → HPN

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into HPN at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEB

Weather at each end

LEB (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 14 · LEB → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?