Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 325 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

9K 325 · HPN → LEB

departs 9:01 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LEB more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEB?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LEB (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 325 · HPN → LEB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEB?