Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 514 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

9K 514 · STX → SJU

departs 9:10 AM AST · arrives 10:27 AM AT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at STX that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ STX usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

STX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

SJU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 514 · STX → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?