Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 539 · MKK → HNL
departs 12:00 PM HT · arrives 1:00 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
12pm departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.16 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.