Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 546 · HNL → MKK
departs 2:00 PM HT · arrives 2:54 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
2pm departures from HNL are often late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.