Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 584 · LUP → HNL
departs 4:46 PM HT · arrives 5:45 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LUP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at HNL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LUP
Weather at each end
LUP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.