Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 6007
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 6007 · HNM → OGG
departs 11:00 AM HT · arrives 11:46 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave HNM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNM that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
11am departures from HNM are usually not late
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.07 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.