Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 731 · MKK → OGG
departs 5:20 PM HT · arrives 6:07 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sun 11/1 22%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
9X's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.18 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.