Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 739 · OGG → MKK
departs 2:25 PM HT · arrives 3:39 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MKK that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.