Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 759 · LNY → OGG
departs 6:50 PM HT · arrives 7:39 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28 46%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LNY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
9X's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.