Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 822 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

9X 822 · HNL → MKK

departs 5:29 AM HT · arrives 6:22 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKK?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at MKK that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

MKK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.33333 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 822 · HNL → MKK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKK?