Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 840 · MKK → OGG
departs 3:40 PM HT · arrives 4:45 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
9X's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.16 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.